Keming Noodle Industry (002661) Matters Comment: Promotional slowdown leads to income growth and profit elasticity advancement continues to highlight
Key points of investment: On the evening of February 25, the company released a quick report on 2019 performance, thereby achieving a revenue of 30.
3.4 billion, ten years +6.
2%, to achieve net profit attributable to mother 2.
09 billion, +12 per year.
In the fourth quarter of 19, it achieved revenue of 7.
$ 8.5 billion a year-8.
5%, achieve net profit attributable to mother 0.
76 trillion, ten years +243.
Ping An’s point of view: 4Q19’s revenue has improved due to multiple factors: Although the Spring Festival preparation time has caused some demand to shift to the fourth quarter, due to the improvement in the promotion of cost-effective products, the narrowing of sales and the initiative to shrink small businesses such as rice and rice flour,Income has at least improved.
After the Spring Festival, affected by the epidemic situation, the demand for noodles has increased even more. As a leader in the noodle industry, the company is expected to share industry dividends, and the quarterly revenue growth rate may gradually improve.
Promotion slowdown + structural upgrade, single-quarter profit realized a high increase: the company’s net profit attributable to its parent was +243 in 4Q19.
6%, net interest rate 9.
7%, an increase of 7 per year.
1 pcts, mainly because more resources are tilted towards high-margin products in the short term to promote product structure upgrades and cost-effective products to reduce sales efforts.
After the epidemic, consumer price sensitivity has declined. We expect the company to reduce the cost of noodles and instant noodle product support or ease it, forming a better support for the company’s short-term performance.
The short-term profit elasticity is prominent, and the long-term growth space is open: under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for staple food products such as noodles has achieved improved growth, and the product costs have been better controlled under strong demand, and the company’s short-term performance has increased flexibility.
The company’s high-end noodle noodles are further consolidated, and the low-end noodle noodles are gradually exerting their power. It is expected to share the dividends of the low-end noodle industry in the fast reshuffle period and create a new growth engine.
We maintain the company’s EPS for 20-21 years.
The forecast of 98 yuan corresponds to 20 PE.
5X, maintain the “recommended” level!
Risk reminders: 1. Risk of intensified industry competition: overcapacity in the noodle industry, product homogeneity, and the possibility of increased competition; 2. risk of major food safety incidents: consumers are particularly sensitive to food safety issues.Food safety accidents, it takes a long time for internal consumers to change their freezing point and rebuild their confidence in the brand; 3. Risks of rising raw material 成都桑拿网 prices: The cost of flour, the main raw material of the product, is relatively high, and the rise in prices may cause performance to fall short of expectations.